A step forward and two back?

There is no doubt in my mind -- Jeff Tedford's chance of remaining the Cal football coach beyond the end of this season increased dramatically after Saturday's beatdown of UCLA (aka Westwood Tech) at Memorial Stadium.

Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing is up to the individual, although it seems the consensus among this blog is that keeping Tedford any longer than we have to would be a bad thing. Heck, even our resident Tedford bobblehead keeper is off the bandwagon! The thing about any fan base, though, is that it will be very reactionary and not able to take the long view to a situation. It's hard to not feel happy for Tedford and the team after their crisp, efficient, and dominating performance, albeit over a program that has done less with more than any other in the Pac-12 (and you could argue, the nation) in the last decade and a half. UCLA hasn't won a game in Memorial Stadium since Tedford's arrival, the only team in the conference not to now that ASU beat us in Strawberry Canyon a week ago.

I would say a majority of Cal fans will judge a season in large part based on how the Bears perform against Stanford, USC and UCLA. Emotions are high in those contests, relatives attended the rival school, co-workers place bets the week before (it's not like anyone here has a co-worker who went to Oregon State). So when Cal wins 2 of these 3 games, it feels like a successful season.

Nothing has meant a sure-fire win more in the last
decade than a visit from UCLA.

Under Tedford, Cal has taken at least 2 of 3 against USC, UCLA, and Stanford in the following years: '02, '03, '04, '06, '08, and '09.

Cal has lost at least 2 of 3 in: '05, '07, '10, and '11, with '07 and '11 being particularly crappy years in which Cal was swept by our rivals. That equals three Monday mornings being laughed at my our Trojan, Bruin and Cardinal coworkers in addition to being razzed at the Thanksgiving table by Uncle Pete, USC Class of '76.

I feel like if Cal beats Stanford this year (they'll be underdogs, but it won't be a shock if they win), the silent majority of Cal fans, and more importantly, Cal donors, will be way more reluctant to buy out Tedford's contract than if we lose the Big Game. Long story short, if Cal wins the Big Game, enjoy Tedford for another year at least. If the Bears lose, we might shift gears as early as this offseason.

I'm not saying we should root for Cal to lose. Then again, the change we all know we need might come quicker if we do lose, which can be consolation if that unlucky event does in fact occur.