Program-crippling blowouts

LaMichael James and Oregon decimated Cal in 2009.

There is hardly anything more damaging to a college football program than a blowout loss. I would submit that getting waxed in college football has a bigger impact than any other sport, amateur or professional.

Comparing football to other college sports, football has fewer games, so each game carries more importance, magnifying the impact of the blowout. Recruits are often at games, and a big loss can carry an adverse effect beyond just the present season. Alumni may make decisions to buy or not to buy season tickets for future seasons based on a particularly good win or bad loss. Fans tend to tolerate narrow losses, as you can point to a number of small factors that would have swung the game the other way. But the hopelessness that pervades a fan base after a blowout loss is a damaging element in any momentum a program might have. It's similar in politics, where a narrow loss in the Iowa caucuses for Rick Santorum (he actually won when votes were recounted) wasn't nearly as damaging as a huge loss was to candidates like Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann. Santorum was able to stay in the race a lot longer because of how close he finished to Romney.

In other professional sports, like tennis, a blowout loss could be potentially very damaging, like say, if Roger Federer lost 6-1, 6-2, 6-0 to Rafael Nadal in a major final, it might permanently alter the landscape of power. Though, if Federer bounced back in a tournament a few weeks later by beating Nadal, some of the mental damage would be mitigated.

In any case, the simple stat I'd like to throw out is this: In the first seven years of Jeff Tedford's tenure as head coach, Cal lost by 20 points or more one time. Since 2009, the Bears have dropped 10 games by 20-plus points, including Saturday's 49-27 loss at Rice-Eccles Stadium to Utah.


Of all the negative trends in the program, this, it could be argued, is the worst. The one blowout loss prior to 2009 was a 35-10 home defeat to USC in 2005, when it could be argued that the Trojans were one of the best teams in college football history (though Vince Young would have other ideas on January 1). There were also a few games, like the loss to Tennessee in Knoxville in 2006, where it was clearly a blowout but where a few late scores helped make the final margin more respectable. However, these instances were very rare.

Since 2009, things have taken a decisive turn for the worse. In the last three and a half years, the Bears have dropped three games by 20+ to an arguably much inferior USC program than it was in the mid-2000s, two to Oregon, which Tedford had beaten four times in five years before 2009, as well as damaging blowouts at the hands of conference rivals Oregon State (2010), Stanford (2010), Washington (2009) and aforementioned Utah. Also, there was the 2010 stinker in Reno where the Bears lost 52-31.

With games remaining against Oregon and Oregon State, there is a strong possibility Tedford will have 12 losses in four years of 20+ or more at the end of this year, making his average 3 blowout losses per year for four whole years.

If that doesn't open some eyes about Tedford's lack of ability to right this ship, I don't know what will.