News broke Sunday morning that Sonny Dykes has hired Wisconsin LB coach Andy Buh as Cal's next defensive coordinator. Buh spent some time as a graduate assistant under Tom Holmoe in 2000-01 before moving on to bigger and better things.
And now Buh, a California native, is coming back to Cal.
Buh's credentials are pretty straightforward:
2008-2009: Stanford co-defensive coordinator
2010-2011: Nevada defensive coordinator
2012: Wisconsin linebackers
To put it simply, Buh made an awful Stanford defense into a below average one and an even worst Nevada defense into an average unit.
So what to make of this hire?
First off, I have to admit it's a letdown to to hear that Dave Aranda (Utah State) is not coming to Cal. Aranda was clearly the best option on the table for a program of Cal's caliber and from various reports out there, Aranda was offered the position earlier in the week (which shows that Dykes is serious about fixing this defense).
While I wasn't surprised that Aranda turned down the Cal position, especially given the reasons we listed in the blog post below, what makes this news sting is that Aranda is supposedly going to Texas Tech (which makes me think that Cal missed out on a coach that they realistically could've had).
Hopefully this is the last we will see of Buh wearing red (Wisconsin athletics)
Having said that, Buh is a very good second option. I don't have any sources out there anymore so I won't pretend like I know what I'm talking about, but I do know a couple people who have worked closely with Buh over the years and they love this hire for Cal.
Word on the street describes Buh as a severe detail oriented coach who is part workaholic, part competitive psycho. I don't really know enough about Buh's defensive philosophies to make a concrete assessment, but having covered recruiting in a past life, I can honestly say that Buh is one hell of a recruiter. Combined with the rapid enthusiasm that Tony Franklin has exhibited, Cal will have two coordinators whoa re constantly out there in the trenches doing their best to get kids to come to Berkeley (which is a great, great change of pace from previous regimes).
With all the talent running around here in California, I'm positive Buh is itching to hit the recruiting trail. Buh also has some strong relationships in Texas as well, which is another big positive.
On the field, I really like the fact that Buh has coached in three different conferences. While his time as a defensive coordinator weren't the greatest (statistically speaking), the hope here is that Buh has experienced and learned a great deal from his past jobs, especially this past season working under Bret Bielema and the rugged, traditionally defensive oriented Big Ten.
Reading around the different websites, I've also seen a lot of questions wondering why Buh (a Nevada alum) left his alma mater to become a LB coach. I've read a lot of if he is so good, then why ... ? remarks. Two notes on that:
Nevada athletics pay its coaches pennies compared to other programs (true)
Buh, as a grown man, needed to do what grown men need to do from time to time and feed his family (speculative on my part)
Much like the Dykes hire, Buh's placement as Cal's defensive coordinator is not without risk. There were certainly safer choices out there (DeWayne Walker being the prime example) but I think both Dykes and Buh are going to work out well for Cal in the long run.
Now that Sonny Dykes has settled into his new role as head coach of the Cal football program, the next step for Dykes is to fill out his coaching staff. From initial reports about who is in and who is out, things are looking swell:
IN
Tony Franklin (Offensive Coordinator): This was a must get for Dykes. Putting aside who is the real brainchild of the offense, it was critical that this pair be kept together. For whatever reason, what these two develop in the film room works magnificently on the field and it would've been a shame to break them up. Continuity + familiarity = great formula for success. Rob Likens (Wide Receivers): Don't know too much about him, but his unit was tremendous last year so it couldn't hurt to bring Likens along.
Mark Tommerdahl (Special Teams): When was the last time the Cal football program had had a truly special special teams? 2007? The Deltha O'Neal days? Tommerdahl is one of the best in the business and it is about time the Bears took this unit seriously.
The big one there is obviously defensive coordinator.
Dykes is only in his second week as head coach so it is flat out unfair to call anything critical at this juncture but I'm going to do it anyway. This hire is going to be critical to the long-term success of the program. I think the majority of Cal people in and outside the program would agree that Dykes' eventual choice for defensive coordinator will make-or-break the Sonny Dykes' era at Cal.
Assuming that Dykes and Franklin continue to put up video game-like numbers on offense (and at this point there is no reason NOT to assume that given Dykes' past history), the layout towards a potential Rose Bowl bid is simple: show a semblance of defense and Cal will be in pretty good shape.
In that regard, this hire is truly significant and I really feel Dykes is going to nail this hire. Unfortunately, however, I think Cal fans are going to be initially disappointed when they find out who the new guy will be. Not that I have insider knowledge or anything (at this point what does insider knowledge even mean anymore?) but I'm pretty sure that Cal's new defensive coordinator will be someone from a lower-end conference (much like Dykes) or someone who comes with some type of flaw/baggage who will be initially looked upon as an underwhelming choice.
While nabbing Utah State's Dave Aranda would be a home run, Mike Elko or DeWayne Walker would also be solid hires
My reasoning for that is simple: the task of coaxing a quality BCS defensive coordinator to jump schools for the same position will be an impossible sell for Dykes. Given the high percentage of defensive coordinators of BCS programs who are looking to become head coaches (pretty much all of them), the likelihood of furthering that career advancement at a place like Cal is very slim.
Between facing the innovative schemes of Pac-12 offenses (pro set, air-raid, up-tempo, pistol, etc ...) and the realization that your defense is going to be on the field more than you would like due to Dykes' penchant to put up points by the bunches, defensive numbers at Cal under Dykes' will always be sweked.
Why would someone like Luke Fickell (Ohio State) for example ever want to take that risk?
Instead, Dykes almost assuredly has to - and probably is at this moment - looking at guys from the WAC, MAC and other conferences of that nature. Make no mistake about it, Dykes is going to have to take a chance with whoever it is he eventually brings in. Whether it's a guy like DeWayne Walker (poor on-field results lately) or a guy like Nick Toth (inexperienced) there will be some questions marks with the new hire.
Having said that, here is my uninformed and probably misguided list on who Dykes' should be looking at:
Dave Aranda (Utah State) - Dykes knows all about Aranda having faced him in the WAC. As a lot of posters on the message boards are writing, nabbing Aranda would be a home run hire. As I outlined above though, why would Aranda take the risk of coming to Cal? Why not wait for a bigger job to come along? I just don't see this happening but will be very, very happy if it did.
Mike Elko (Bowling Green) - I really like what Elko has done. Elko's defense was arguably the best in the country (outside of the usual suspects) this season and the great thing about Elko is that his units have consistently forced turnovers. He's still young and seems energetic, which would obviously translate well in recruiting, and he's an Ivy League guy!
DeWayne Walker (New Mexico State) - I say throw out everything he's done at New Mexico State. I mean seriously, I don't know if Nick Saban could win there. Having said that though, Walker's record as head coach at NMSU is horrific. But I think once he gets back to doing what he does best (recruiting Los Angeles and calling defensive plays) Walker would be a huge asset to the program. The best thing about Dykes' offense is that Walker doesn't even have to be the greatest coordinator in the world - he just needs to hold down the fort. And as we've seen time and time again, talent can and often does mask a coach's weaknesses and Walker has been known to recruit as well as anyone around.
Mark Banker (Oregon State) - Not going to happen but might as well make the phone call.
Nick Toth (Fresno State) - This guy is a real up-and-comer but he has only one year experience as a coordinator. Is that enough?
Kent Baer (San Jose State) - I assume he's going to go with McIntyre to Boulder but maybe Dykes can pry him loose? Unlike the other guys on this list, Baer has been around the block a time or three. As my editor Jimmy Durkin at the Tribune noted to me, Baer is very experienced and has faced virtually every offense out there. Hiring a guy like Baer will give Cal a lot of stability. Won't be the very best defense around but he'll produce a solid unit.
Robb Smith (Rutgers) - Had his guys flying around the ball this year. Much like Toth, however, two things jump out about Smith: inexperienced (one year as coordinator) and competition (have you seen Big East offenses this year)? Still though, results are results and Smith produced big-time this season.
Brent Guy (Tulsa) - The oldest and experienced guy on this list next to Baer. Guy has been around the block as well having coached all over the place, including the Pac-10. His unit gave up only 24 points per game this past season but just as important his Tulsa unit ranked in the top 20 overall in rush defense. Much like Baer, Guy is more of a safe choice in that you kind of know what you are getting.
As I said above, I think Coach Dykes is going to nail this hire but it probably won't be a guy that many Cal fans have heard of (so patience folks!)
Reading through all the tea leaves, numerous outlets are reporting that Cal has hired Sonny Dykes to be its next head coach.
Was it a home run hire that we were all hoping for? No.
Is Dykes a good hire? I personally believe so.
Following
this process for the last two weeks, it's evident that whoever was
Cal's first choice told Sandy they weren't interested which prompted Cal
to move on to "Plan B." All things said and done, I think Dykes is a
pretty good backup plan.
The essentials that come with Dykes'
resume is pretty well-known: offense, offense, and more offense. Dykes
is from Lubbock, Tex. and has been a head coach for three seasons. A
well-regarded offensive mind, Dykes has proven over the years that his
teams can and will put up points.
Dykes' history as an offensive coordinator/in charge of an offense:
2007: 57th in the country (28 points per game)
2008: 16th in the country (36.6 points per game)
2009: 61st in the country (27.3 points per game)
2010: 60th in the country (26.8 points per game)
2011: 42nd in the country (30.1 points per game)
2012: 1st in the country (51.5 points per game)
Dykes' LA Tech team was ranked No. 1 in offense this season. Can be bring that success to Cal?
Why Dykes?
Truthfully, only Sandy knows that answer to that question but this hiring signals a couple things:
1. Sandy believes that outside of the big names Dykes is the best guy for the job.
2. Sandy believes that Dykes "fits" what UC Berkeley (not just Cal) is looking for in a head coach.
3. Sandy believes that Dykes can relate to fans, donors, and potential new fans in and around the Bay Area.
So what does this mean for Cal as a program?
First of all, it means that Cal is not the number one destination for big name coaches. Shocking right? Various names like Chris Petersen, Bob Diaco and Charlie Strong were thrown out there as candidates only to fall away. This is obviously nothing new and a continuation sign of what Cal hopes to become one day. A program like Arkansas might be able to go and get who they want, but Cal is not there ... yet.
With that said, this hire also marks a new beginning for Cal football. By the time kick-off arrives next September and the overachieving Wildcats of Northwestern are standing on the other sideline, Cal fans will forget all about the Tedford era and the slate will be wiped clean and replaced with happy thoughts of what the future might hold.
This hire also reiterates (whether on purpose or not) that Sandy Barbour and Cal believes that the best way to win and sell tickets is with an offensive coach running the show. Strong, Diaco, Mike McIntyre and to a lesser extent Petersen were all defensive minded guys. As outsiders to the situation, we will never know exactly how much the prospect of selling those ESP seats played into this decision, but I'm sure Sandy believed that it is much easier to sell tickets to the Cal fanbase with an exciting brand of football rather than a boring one.
What does this mean for Cal on the field?
Based on Dykes' track record, there is no reason to believe that Cal won't average at least 30 points per game next season. With speedsters such as Treggs, Harper, Bigelow, Lasco and others, the personnel that Tedford left Dykes with seems made for his offense. Dykes was highly successful with Nick Foles under center when he was at Arizona and there is even more talent on this roster in comparison to those Arizona teams. Bottom line, it is safe to say that this will be the most talented roster (outside of the Harrell-Crabtree TT squad) Dykes has ever had to play with.
I also like the fact that Dykes' spread option offense also includes a heavy dose of running the ball. Passing the ball on 3rd-and-2 really irks people after awhile and I'm glad that Dykes' at least appreciates the idea that running the ball can also be a big positive. LA Tech's leading rusher Kenneth Dixon tallied 1,194 yards on the ground this past season on 200 carries. No reason to believe Bigelow couldn't match those numbers.
So that leaves the defense. If the huge positive in hiring Dykes is offense, the huge drawback is defense. Taking Dykes' Louisiana Tech squads of the past couple years as an example, his teams have been terrible on that side of the ball. We could type out the statistics to prove it, but let's just say you should take our word for it.
If rumors are indeed true that former UCLA defensive coordinator Dewayne Walker will accompany Dykes to Cal, that will be a huge bonus for the program. The easiest and quickest way to fix a defense is to
1). Hire a coordinator that knows defense
and
2). Recruit the living crap out of that side of the ball.
Walker has proven in the past that he knows the Southern California area well and can recruit his fair share of talent. That should bode well for Cal considering the number of high-caliber athletes that are attracted to Cal. It is difficult for a school like LA Tech to sign 50-55 capable high school and JuCo athletes who are starter caliber (which is why even highly successful mid-majors struggle on one side of the ball) but it is much easier at a bigger BCS quality school like Cal.
What does the future hold for Cal?
I think the future is bright. While announcing that Chris Petersen would be the next Cal head coach would've been ideal, it was always a long shot. And since it wasn't going to be Petersen, a Dykes + Walker combo is a pretty good consolation prize. Dykes is very much in the mold of Chip Kelly, filled with an up & down offense and a penchant to go-for-it on 4th-and-2 from his own 45-yard line. In many ways, Dykes is what Jeff Tedford is not: daring, creative, brash, and simply doesn't give a f.
The key, as it usually is when it comes to college athletics, is recruiting. Dykes and his staff has been given a roster that is talented enough to win at least eight games this season (despite the tough schedule). But as we all know, it's not about just this season. Dykes needs to show and prove that he can recruit against the biggest names in the game. Because he runs a specific system, Dykes doesn't need to get all the high-4 star kids, but he does need to win his fair share of recruiting battles.
The prospect of getting Walker is also a high plus as noted before. Over the last couple years, Cal has slowly lost its pull in Southern California. Cal needs to re-kindle those relationships down there and Walker is the perfect guy to do it.
My only fear with this hire is that Dykes' gung-ho style will temper off now that he's in a position where he has to win. There have been countless examples (including Jeff Tedford) where the pressure to succeed on a high level forces coaches to become more conservative, uncreative, and in the end downright scared to take chances. Hopefully Dykes keeps his underdog style.
Regardless though, I will be looking forward to Spring Ball for the first time in I don't know how long.
Jeff Tedford spent 11 years at Cal, becoming the school's
winningest coach. (AP Photo)
The press room was unusually quiet as I and my Daily Cal
cohort walked into the Hall of Fame Room at the Old Memorial Stadium. The usual
banter before the postgame press conference was replaced by whispers, the soft
rustling of papers and the echoes from disgruntled fans outside, walking home
in disappointment. It was also late in the night, and the old veterans who
worked for newspapers had to pound out the early editions of their stories, so
that people in the far reaches of the Bay Area could at least have a couple of
paragraphs to describe what had just happened in Berkeley.
What would be revealed—if anything—at the presser would have
to go online and would be on the front pages in San
Francisco, Oakland and San Jose—where delivery trucks don’t have to stray too
far away from their printing presses.
So, in addition to what seemed like ambient noise was the
steady click-clack that came from reporters typing on their laptops. One of the
reporters phoned in to his editor. His story was finished. He was going to add
the quotes in later.
We had to take seats in the table at the front of the room,
something that we never did. There is something awkward about sitting at the
front of a press corps, especially when you’ve barely reached the legal age to
drink. Usually, we—and by “we” I mean the crew that wrote for the student
paper—gave deference to the professionals. They’ve been doing this a long time.
They should ask the questions. They should be sitting in the front.
Not tonight. No, tonight was different.
And usually, I’m one of the first in the Hall of Fame room
for the press conference. Even before the clock hits zero, I’ve tried to make
my way up, just to save my crew a spot in the press room, to save a couple of
outlets and to be the first to grab the final stat book that the sports
information guys print out. Tonight, we were one of the last people to walk
into that press conference.
This night was Oct. 13, 2007, and the reason why the mood
was different in the Hall of Fame room that night was because Cal had just dropped its first game of the
2007 campaign. It was a heartbreaker. The final score 31-28 with one freshman
mistake being the deciding factor in the game.
Sure, in other seasons, in different eras, under another
head coach, this would have been not out of the norm. Losing, however, was not
the norm under head coach Jeff Tedford, especially in 2007.
Tedford had led the Bears to a 5-0 record heading into that
autumn evening in Berkeley.
Cal opened
the season with a drubbing of No. 15 Tennessee, then a perennial national
contender. It was coming off an improbable road win over No. 11 Oregon, in what
is the most inhospitable stadium to play in on the West Coast (college or pro). And,
with the tumult that was ravishing the college football landscape, the Bears
found themselves with a No. 2 ranking.
No, that loss was no ordinary loss. It was The Loss. It is
The Loss that has defined the second half of Tedford’s 11-year tenure at Cal, which ended last
week. But it isn’t the loss that led me to believe that Tedford would never
take the Bears to the next level. It was that postgame press conference that
told me more about Tedford and the state of the program than any on field
performance ever would.
Reading different internet sites like BT and BI (where are the "pro" guys on this stuff by the way?) it sounds like Cal's coaching search officially kicks into overdrive Monday morning.
On the assumption that every coach Sandy Barbour sits down and talks to is actually interested in the position, I think she and the Cal administration tasked with making this big decision will have plenty of quality options to choose from.
My personal opinion on who should be at the top of the list:
1a. Chris Petersen
An obvious choice for many reasons ... none bigger than the fact that Petersen has consistently won. Big.
Why he should be the choice: Petersen has promoted a disciplined style of play that has become almost as synonymous as the the bright blue turf up there in Boise. His teams play hard and they execute on a consistent basis. I love the fact that Boise State doesn't play scared. Whether its going into Eugene or East Lansing, Fiesta Bowl or Georgia Dome, the Broncos play football like they actually expect to win.
Why he shouldn't be the choice: Hard to come up with reasons not to hire Petersen assuming he actually wants to come. Maybe the only reason would be a brief look at past history, where Dirk Koetter and Dan Hawkins both followed successful terms in Boise with duds in their following destinations.
Bottom line: A slam dunk hire if it works out. How many times has Cal walked into a hostile environment (especially USC) and laid an egg? With Petersen at the helm, Cal fans at the very least could reasonably expect the kids to give themselves a chance to win no matter what the situation.
1b. Dave Doeren
A personal favorite of mine who I think should garner heavy interest.
Why he should be the choice: Like Petersen, there is something that should be said about guys who just win wherever they go. After all, that is the name of the game is it not? Doeren was highly successful as Wisconsin's defensive coordinator and he's been highly successful as the head coach of Northern Illinois. Much like Jim Harbaugh and Urban Meyer, hiring someone who has won wherever he's been is a good indication that the trend will continue.
Why he shouldn't be the choice: A Kansas native, Doeren doesn't really have ties on the West Coast. Why does that matter? Recruiting. The Catch-22 about having a ton of talent in your state means that a). you have a ton of talent in your state and b). coaches from everywhere come into your area and try to grab players in your backyard.
Bottom line: Notice that I consider Doeren to be almost on par with Petersen. Both guys are relatively young (Doeren is 33 I believe), respected by his players (based on how hard their kids play), actually make their kids go to class (top-notch APR rankings), and have won wherever they've been. I think a guy like Doeren exhibits the characteristics and personality traits that Cal should be looking for.
3. Charlie Strong
Not quite as high on Strong compared to other guys but I do think he'd be a solid choice for Cal and still a lot better than the remaining guys on the board.
Why he should be the choice: Toughness. Strong has deeply rooted ties to SEC football and his teams play certainly play strong. On paper, Cal has had an offensive minded head coach at the helm for the last 11 years and it'll be good to get a defensive coach in here to change things up a bit.
Why he shouldn't be the choice: Might not mesh well with the West Coast style of play - both in terms of recruiting and philosophy.
Bottom line: I would be happy with Strong if that happened. However, all signs point to him staying in the south.
Others
Hue Jackson: Won't be happy with this hire. Didn't like what he did with the Raiders. Confidence in one's abilities in great, but Jackson's bravado seemed more like arrogance. Set the Raiders back years with his ridiculous push for Carson Palmer. (Side note: Raiders gave up essentially same package for Palmer as Redskins gave up to grab RGIII). Also didn't like how he put blame on players late in his final season with Raiders. Game management skills could be better as well, based on various games with Oakland, especially contest against Lions where failure to go for two cost Silver & Black the game.
Greg Roman: Best X's and O's guy on the board? Would bring Stanford style of play to Cal but Bears simply don't have personnel to play that style. Would be at least a couple years before Cal gets the players needed to win at a high level. Can Roman recruit? And is he patient enough to hang around Cal for 4-5 years given how close he might be to a NFL gig?
James Franklin: Has done very well at Vandy and looks to very much be a "Cal type" of hire. Personable, energetic guy who will know what is expected from an academic school with winning football aspirations. Ended 2012 season hot but overall coaching abilities still in question.
Wanted to share a short timeline from 2006, a timeline that means
absolutely nothing except to us here at SCF but one in which every Cal
fan probably could relate to. November 2006: Just one win away from the big
one, Cal fans pile into cars, trucks and whatever else and drive down
I-5 to watch their team walk out of the L.A. Coliseum with a victory
over USC to clinch the most satisfying trip to the Rose Bowl ever. The
guys here at SCF were part of the thousands that made the trek down to
Los Angeles. Here is a G-rated version of what happened:
Friday, 7 p.m. - Walk into a
random In N' Out somewhere in the middle of Cow Country only to find the
place filled with rowdy Cal fans. A constant wave of "Go Bears" chants
ensues amidst waiting in the long ass line as tourists look on in
disbelief.
7:09 p.m. - Member of SCF almost gets beaten up in In
N' Out bathroom by fellow Cal fan for picking USC to win in the Daily
Cal's "One for the Roses" issue the day before.
7:44 p.m. - The
moment where the whole car (minus the driver of course) realizes that In
N' Out and cheap vodka probably don't go together too well.
9:30
p.m. - The eight of us pile into the glamorous hotel room that's
supposed to fit two members of the Cal support staff (don't ask).
Cal fans shared a lot of smiles with Jeff Tedford over the years
9:36
p.m. - One of the professional beat writers covering Cal from a local
major paper joins the crowd to turn the eight to nine.
While I gather my thoughts on the conclusion of this polarizing issue, let me just state for the record that my Tedford bobblehead will remain on my desk, where it's been since 2003, and the password for my wifi network "Go Bears" will continue to be "jefftedford" as it has been since 2007 (please don't hack my apartment).
When examining Jeff Tedford's situation at Cal, I frequently go back to a well-known Bill Walsh belief: After 10 years in any position that’s stressful--whether it's going good or bad--it is best for the person and the organization to seek a change of scenery. If you look at some of the greatest sports dynasties of our time, there are some common trends: Joe Torre managed the Yankees for exactly 10 seasons; Phil Jackson coached 10 with the Bulls, then 11 with the Lakers; Walsh's 10 with the Niners.
Few athletes and coaches ever hang it up at the pinnacles of their careers. For every Barry Sanders, you have five examples of Willie Mays, who probably played a half decade too long. It takes tremendous self-awareness and foresight to walk away, especially when things are going so well. Sometimes you need to put aside the competitive spirit that got you to the top. I think it's no coincidence that the great minds of Torre, Jackson and Walsh left right around the 10-year mark. At some point you lose the same drive and innovative-spirit--it's human nature.
When Theo Epstein left the Boston Red Sox as general manager after arguably the best nine-season stretch in Sox history, he cited Walsh when explaining his departure.
"The theory is that both the individual and the organization benefit from a change after so much time together. The executive gets rebirth and the energy that comes with a new challenge; the organization gets a fresh perspective, and the chance for true change that comes with new leadership. This idea resonated with me. Although I tried my best to fight it, I couldn’t escape the conclusion that both the Red Sox and I would benefit from a change sometime soon."
Whether he knows it or not, all that is left for us to discuss
regarding Jeff Tedford is his legacy.
In the latter quarter of Jeff Tedford's reign at Cal, there has emerged two distinct ways of looking at him when questions arise about his leadership of the program. The first camp points out that the Bears were a much inferior team in the years prior to Tedford's arrival, including a 1-10 year in Tom Holmoe's final season in 2001, and so Cal fans need to appreciate how good they have it with Tedford. The second group points out the fact that Tedford's best days are far behind him in terms of bringing anything close to glory to Strawberry Canyon, and that if it weren't for a fan base with lowered expectations from decades of sucking, he would have and should have been shown the door several years earlier.
I'm not saying Tedford will be fired. Athletic Director Sandy Barbour has many factors to consider when making that determination, and not all of them are related to wins and losses.
I'm not even saying Tedford should be fired. He is the most important figure Cal football has ever had (sorry, Pappy, but leather-helmet football isn't real football), he changed the nature of the program, and he stuck with us despite NFL offers when nobody else would (*cough*Mariucci*cough*). He is the only Cal coach I have never known, and seeing someone else pace the sidelines with a clipboard and a headset on Saturdays would be as alien an experience as I can imagine in football.
What I am saying is this: It's time for me to break up with Tedford.
Now, as the 2012 season braces itself, finally, for its mercy killing in Corvallis on Saturday night at the hands of an impressive Oregon State squad, the time for Barbour's ultimate decision has come:
"We'll probably get together on Sunday and we'll go from there, however long it takes us. We need to resolve quickly what are the solutions to getting Cal football moving in the right direction," Barbour said in a CBSSports.com article on the subject. "Football to this university is really important. It's a huge emotional driver, a huge financial driver and in seeking solutions to get us back on track, we'll be really thoughtful ... we have to decide what that solution set is very quickly and let's move in that direction."
A ringing endorsement that most definitely is not.
So, Tedford's time in Berkeley seems to be up. I'm sure my colleagues here at SCF will have a lot to say next week once the news officially does (or does not -- I supposed this is still a possibility) break.
As for me, I was torn the Tedford conundrum for most of the last three seasons, during which, assuming the Bears lose to the Beavers (currently ranked No. 15 in the AP poll and No. 16 in the BCS standings), the team compiled an overall record of 15-22. I tried dealing with my internal conflict through apathy -- "Just make a decision and leave me out of it." But now, I have made up my mind:
There is hardly anything more damaging to a college football program than a blowout loss. I would submit that getting waxed in college football has a bigger impact than any other sport, amateur or professional.
Comparing football to other college sports, football has fewer games, so each game carries more importance, magnifying the impact of the blowout. Recruits are often at games, and a big loss can carry an adverse effect beyond just the present season. Alumni may make decisions to buy or not to buy season tickets for future seasons based on a particularly good win or bad loss. Fans tend to tolerate narrow losses, as you can point to a number of small factors that would have swung the game the other way. But the hopelessness that pervades a fan base after a blowout loss is a damaging element in any momentum a program might have. It's similar in politics, where a narrow loss in the Iowa caucuses for Rick Santorum (he actually won when votes were recounted) wasn't nearly as damaging as a huge loss was to candidates like Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann. Santorum was able to stay in the race a lot longer because of how close he finished to Romney.
In other professional sports, like tennis, a blowout loss could be potentially very damaging, like say, if Roger Federer lost 6-1, 6-2, 6-0 to Rafael Nadal in a major final, it might permanently alter the landscape of power. Though, if Federer bounced back in a tournament a few weeks later by beating Nadal, some of the mental damage would be mitigated.
In any case, the simple stat I'd like to throw out is this: In the first seven years of Jeff Tedford's tenure as head coach, Cal lost by 20 points or more one time. Since 2009, the Bears have dropped 10 games by 20-plus points, including Saturday's 49-27 loss at Rice-Eccles Stadium to Utah.
As if the beatdown issued to Cal by Stanford last Saturday wasn't enough, this week brought the publishing of the most recent graduation statistics by the NCAA. As you can see from doing a simple search, Cal places dead last in the conference at 48%, and that number takes into account transfers and students who leave under good academic standing.
Recent graduation numbers released by the NCAA don't
exactly reflect well on Jeff Tedford and the Cal football program.
Of course, the simple reaction to this from a Cal fan would be, "This is the last straw with Tedford -- he can't produce on the field and now we find out he can't produce off it either!"
It's a reaction that is understandable, and not completely off the mark. However, it's necessary to look deeper into the numbers to get a full picture of what is going on.
It may be October, it may be 80 degrees outside, and there
may not be a bonfire this time around, but it is nonetheless Big Game Week.
This rivalry is too special and too historical to let a scheduling change take
anything away from it.
As recently as a decade ago, there was a chain-linked fence
that needed to be erected to separate the two teams’ fans at Memorial Stadium. Recently, however, it
seems as if the Big Game has lost some of its luster. It probably doesn't help
that Cal and Stanford have alternated between being really good and really bad (and
never at the same time) over much of the last 20 years, making for lopsided
matchups on paper and less head-to-head conference significance.
During the Tedford era, I can
easily point to games against USC, Oregon and Tennessee as the most meaningful and
anticipated games of the year. But even so, one of the toughest losses I’ve had to stomach was in
2007 when Stanford upset the Bears to snap Cal’s five-game winning streak that
many of us had taken for granted. And probably the best Cal game I have ever attended
in person was the Bears 34-28 win at Stanford Stadium in 2009. There is something special about the Big Game.
Even with Cal fighting to stay relevant in 2012, and
Stanford controlling their destiny for a Pac-12 Championship berth with only
one conference loss, I was surprised to see the Cardinal only favored by 2.5
points. As we all know, anything can happen at the Big Game. Perhaps now that the
Bears have very little to play for except pride (and an appearance at AT&T
Park in December), Cal fans will once again get properly fired up in what should always
be the biggest game of the year. Even on a warm October day.
I realized last night what makes sports, or sport as Mitt Romney would say, special to me -- it's not highlight reel plays, spectacular statistical lines, or even big wins. It's the feeling that something great could happen for and by your team. After the Oakland A's improbable postseason run came to an end last night, I was reminded of the stinging feeling I also had in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003, all losses in that bugaboo of a game 5 hurdle that the A's can't seem to get past. But I think I was most upset that the excitement of the last four months was over. The guarded optimism of July turned into a hope of maybe taking the second wild card, then to the excitement of catching the Rangers, then of getting past the Tigers and Verlander, taking on the Yankees in the Bronx and getting to the World Series. Just to think of the possibilities was amazing -- even if they were largely kept to myself in an effort not to jinx anything.
There is no doubt in my mind -- Jeff Tedford's chance of remaining the Cal football coach beyond the end of this season increased dramatically after Saturday's beatdown of UCLA (aka Westwood Tech) at Memorial Stadium.
Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing is up to the individual, although it seems the consensus among this blog is that keeping Tedford any longer than we have to would be a bad thing. Heck, even our resident Tedford bobblehead keeper is off the bandwagon! The thing about any fan base, though, is that it will be very reactionary and not able to take the long view to a situation. It's hard to not feel happy for Tedford and the team after their crisp, efficient, and dominating performance, albeit over a program that has done less with more than any other in the Pac-12 (and you could argue, the nation) in the last decade and a half. UCLA hasn't won a game in Memorial Stadium since Tedford's arrival, the only team in the conference not to now that ASU beat us in Strawberry Canyon a week ago.
I was there, in the Memorial Stadium student section on August 31, 2002, when it all began:
C 1-10 C29 Williams,T. pass complete to Gray,David for 71 yards to the BU0, 1S DOWN CAL, TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:40.Boller lateral to Williams before pass. Jensen,Mark kick attempt good.Boller lateral to Williams before pass.Jensen,Mark kick attempt good.
I was there for the highs:
U 4-6 C21 Ryan Killeen field goal attempt from 39 MISSED - wide right, spot at USC25, clock 15:00.
...
C 4-6 U21 Fredrickson, T. field goal attempt from 38 GOOD, clock 15:00.
And I was there for the lows:
C 1-10 O12 [SHOT], Riley, Kevin rush SC for 2 yards to the OSU10 (Joey LaRocque).
C 2-8 O10 End of game, clock 00:00.
Now, looking back, I think it all turned that day, five years ago, October 13, 2007. I didn't know it then, of course. Standing there, jaw agape, with my friends for 30 minutes in deafening silence, all I knew was No. 2 Cal had blown a chance to ascend to the pinnacle of the college football universe, after No. 1 LSU had fallen during the Bears' game against Oregon State.
Crushed as I as, in my heart I knew the missed opportunity was merely the first of many that would surely come over the next several years. After all, we had Jeff Tedford at the helm.
At the beginning of the year I predicted a pedestrian 7-5 record. That means that at this point in the year, I had pegged our record to be at 3-2. Instead it's a pathetic 1-4. And looking ahead at my picks, it'll be hard for Cal to flip two additional games on top of what I over-optimistically at the time had them winning.
For example, I had Cal winning the following games from here: UCLA, @Wazzu, Stanford, and Washington.
I had them losing to: @Utah, Oregon, @Oregon State.
I like to think of myself as a pretty fair-minded Cal fan. I picked us to lose in the Daily Cal to USC back in 2006 and almost got jumped by Cal fans in the bathroom of an In 'n Out on the way down I-5 for "being a sellout". But it's clear now that while predicting how this year would go in August, I was seeing things through blue-and-gold goggles, or rather, the perspective of a Cal fan/student who attended the school during a truly different era of Cal football. For example, playing ASU at home would have never been a worry 5-6 years ago. Beating Nevada at home would be a gimmie too. The thing that has stood out to me in the Nevada and ASU losses has been the lack of anything too concrete to point to. It's more a general feel of malaise and an overall lack of talent at pretty much every position on the field except for WR1 (Allen) and LB (McCain).
Zach Maynard makes Kevin Riley look like Drew Brees.
Tedford can't recruit good players because this program is stale. It's too bad the university owes Tedford so much money making it very unlikely barring a 1-11 finish that any changes will be made. But I hope Sandy Barbour is starting to think of viable alternatives. She can be applauded for the job she did replacing Braun with Monty. For the football team, Steve Mariucci comes to mind. Pete Carroll would be everyone's dream, seeing as though he's a Bay Area native, but it looks like his Seahawk team is pretty good so any hope of him getting canned is probably wishful thinking.
Looking at our body of work through five games, I'll say Cal wins 1 or 2 of the 4 games above I had them winning, and losing all three of the ones I had them losing. That puts us at 3-9 or 2-10 -- truly embarrassing.
I was spelunking through the depths of my English major vocabulary trying to unearth the best word to encapsulate my feelings about Cal football at this, the one-third mark of the 2012 season.
Apoplectic? This is undeniably the worst start we've had in the 11 years of the Tedford Era -- we're 1-3 with the win coming against a FCS (I miss calling it I-AA) team. I feel like I should feel enraged. My boy Brendan Bigelow got only four carries against USC, despite the fact that he averaged almost eight yards on each of them. I feel like I should be pissed about this. But I don't.
Apathetic, then? Maybe I've reached a point with this season where I'm just done giving a shit. But that doesn't ring true for me either. I have the same nervous excitement for the Arizona State game tomorrow that I feel leading up to every Cal game. I still care.
And then it hit me: Disenfranchised. I feel cut off from my team for the first time in years. My quarterback might well be a total pansy, as my esteemed colleague Chris pointed out a few days ago. My coach is selling his house in Danville. Our designated star player has a whopping one receiving touchdown. My team has become the Bizarro Bears.
There has been a tremendous amount of noise around the interwebs regarding Coach Tedford's job status. X's and O's aside, this video below is the stuff that ultimately might do it.
It is one thing to get beat by a better team. It is another to just pack it in and call it a day. I don't know what Zach Maynard was thinking here and I don't care to know. I just thought for sure that he would be yanked after pulling some nonsense like this.
Worst of all, however, is that Tedford allowed Maynard to trot back out there to finish the game.
These two guys are the leaders of the program?
No wonder Cal is on the downswing.
Down only 11 points midway through the 4th quarter against a team like USC ... every down counts. And for the nuts out there who say what else could Maynard do there? Take a look at where CJ Anderson is for a second at the tail end of the play. Could that have been a pick? Sure. But an interception is 100 times better than just quitting on a play.
It's one thing for someone sitting at a computer like me to criticize (as if anyone actually cares what I think) but when your own teammates are wondering, that's when you know you have a problem.
Notice young Rigsbee's reaction (which pretty much says it all).
Seems like most of us were down in L.A. so I'm sure we'll have plenty to write about Cal's 27-9 loss to USC but these little tidbits pretty much sums it up for now:
Coach Tedford overall record vs. USC:
1-10
Number of consecutive losses to USC:
9
Number of touchdowns scored in L.A. Coliseum after 2004 epic that was so long ago it shouldn't even be mentioned anymore:
2 (in four games/16 quarters)
* And those two scores came in true garbage time in 2010
Scoring average between USC & Cal in L.A. since 2006:
USC 29, Cal 9
USC 115 points total, Cal 35 points total
Game
1: The luster of this game wore off as September and October turned
into November. At one point, it seemed destined for this game to be THE
game of the year. Both teams at one point were ranked in the top 5. One
started as the preseason No. 1 in the country. The other rose all the way
to No. 2. But losses to inferior teams at home (one to Stanford; the other
to OregonState) sent the teams tumbling. But
both were ranked when the two met on a Saturday night in November. It was
a cold and rainy Saturday night, with a constant and steady stream of
light rain and with the darkest clouds making the scene even more
dramatic. The home team hadn’t beat the away team in four years. It wore
special throwback uniforms that year to honor a former great. It was
looking to redeem a season against a huge rival. It got close. With three
minutes left, the home team was down by a touchdown, and had the ball in
enemy territory. But the quarterback—who struggled all season—could not
hit his receiver and threw an interception to end the upset bid. The crowd
of 72,000 was stunned, but not surprised. Remember, it was only a month ago
that they were the No. 2 team in the country and saw their national title
hopes crushed on a decision by a quarterback.
Game
2: Revenge was on the mind of the home team here. Revenge and protecting what it believed to be theirs. It
was a year ago that the visiting team ended the home team’s run for an
outright national championship. And now they meet this year, this time in
front of their 90,000 fans in a historic venue. The game was between two
top 10 teams, as the visiting team slowly rose in the rankings, due to the
play by its understated running back and its Quarterback who would become
an NFL superstar. The game itself was amazing, especially for that said Quarterback.
He completed his first 23 passes, tying a NCAA record and breaking a
school record. But he couldn’t complete the passes that counted. The
visiting team had 1st-and-goal on its opponent’s 9-yard line.
There were less than two minutes left and it was down six points. First
down: the Quarterback is flushed out of the pocket and throws an
incompletion. Second down: the Quarterback is sacked. Third down: another
incomplete pass. Fourth down: an open a receiver in the end zone, a slip, and another incomplete pass. The visiting team outgained the home team 424-205
in total yards. It wasn’t enough. The home team avenged its loss from the
year before and went on to win the outright national championship.
Game
3: Both teams are facing resurgences. The visiting team is ranked No. 3 in
the country for the first time since 1988. The home team finally has a
heart beat after winning just one game two seasons before. The game is an
epic one, so epic that the words written here would fail to do it justice.
You might as well watch the whole thing (via Youtube), or at
least watch the highlights.
Just know that there were three overtimes. There was a turnover, three
missed field goals, two touchdowns, and a nervous home kicker to win the
game in overtime. The home team won, 34-31. The visiting team would have to settle for
a share of the national championship this year. The win would be a program-maker
for the home team.
Did I get my iPhone 5 today? Yes. Do I love it? Yes. Am I going to stretch the boundaries of acceptable sportswriting similes to incorporate my iPhone 5 into a post about Cal football? Yes, yes I am. Let's get to it!
Brendan Bigelow is iPhone 5. There, I said it. That felt fantastic.
iPhone 5 is small, one of the thinnest, lightest phones on the market; so is Brendan Bigelow. He is listed at 5' 10", 190 lbs, and if there's anything I learned in my days as a for-realzies sportswriter, it's that sports information directors inflate specs like Galaxy S3 owners.
iPhone 5 is powerful, with the new A6 processor; so is Brendan Bigelow. He was a top-rated running back recruit despite missing his entire senior year with a blown-out knee.
Lastly -- and most importantly -- iPhone 5 is fast, and holy shit so is Brendan Bigelow. Anyone watching last Saturday's nationally televised game against Ohio State got crazy proof of that.
(Quick tangent: Anyone who took my not-so-amazing gambling advice last weekdefinitely knows about Bigelow's speed. His two TD runs helped Cal cover the 16.5 point spread I insisted was uncover-able. For those who may have wagered every penny of their net worth on that game after my impassioned plea to do so, um ... my bad?)
One of my biggest pleasures watching football since I've been watching football was the confidence I had in Jeff Tedford and his staff. There was a period of time (maybe somewhere between 2003-2007) when I just knew going into a game that Cal had the advantage in the coaching department (both in terms of preparation and in-game management).
For obvious reasons, that confidence has dissipated over the years so all could imagine the joy of watching the Bears perform like they did last week against Ohio State. Was it partly luck? Maybe. Sometimes things just "click" on the field for no apparent reason only to go back towards the norm the following week.
Let's all hope that's not the case this time around.
Coaches often talk about football as a chess match and Cal vs. USC (from 2002-2008) really defined that mantra. The amount of preparation, attention to detail and overall effectiveness and crispness of the play on the field when the two programs butted heads was obvious as each game came to a close. Players played hard, knew their assignments, knew their opponents and generally exuded a confidence that all winning programs have deep in their gut. You could just tell the stress that Tedford put on Carroll and vice versa.
What changed in 2009, 2010, and 2011? We can and have speculated ad nauseum, but only Tedford can truly answer that question.
Over the last year three seasons, instead of playing like an equal to USC, the Bears crumbled at the first sign of adversity, never showing a hint of desperation or will to fight back. That's why last week's contest against tOSU was so encouraging. Not saying Cal is going to win, because it's going to be damn tough to do so for more reasons than one, but I'll feel better about how the rest of the season is going to play out for the Bears if they hang on strong against a USC team itching to erase the nasty taste of the Stanford loss off their collective psyches.
Having said all that (and even though I don't think the Bears are going to pull this one out), I honestly feel that Cal walks into the Coliseum on Saturday with a coaching advantage for the first time in a while. Tedford needs to show more consistency before anyone is ready to say the old Tedford is back but for one week the Tedford against tOSU did indeed look like the Tedford of old. On that same front, I've never been a huge fan of Lane Kiffin (I'm a Raiders fan) and after watching him in the college ranks for three years now I'm still not entirely sold.
Thank goodness Cal doesn't have this guy leading its program
Since his failed days in Oakland, Kiffin has showed time and time again that he is incredibly stubborn when coaching a game. Against Stanford last week, I felt that a truly great coach would've come up with a strategy to protect his AA quarterback as the second half rolled along. Instead, Kiffin stuck to his guns and it hurt USC tremendously.
Is it a big advantage? We'll see. In years past, the x's and o's between these two teams were a mirror image of each other: two pro-style offenses looking to establish the run in an attempt to be balanced. This time though, with Cal going all-in with its spread principles, we'll see what happens after one team throws the first punch. OTHER RANDOM THOUGHTS
-- I can't emphasize enough how great the game-plan was against tOSU. That was vintage 2003 Jeff Tedford.
-- Forget the call to kick the FG late in the fourth quarter last week. Tedford has always and will always make that call. Why people were shocked by that was beyond comprehension for me.
-- Coming into the season teams were going to key on Keenan and that obviously hasn't changed. So imagine my pleasant surprise when the Bears started to move Keenan around a little bit on Saturday (especially in the slot). Beautiful execution by the coaching staff.
-- Zack Maynard played the best game of his career last week against tOSU. In all honestly, he probably won't put together another game like that the rest of his life.
--Also on Maynard, it'll be nice if a Cal center could give him a string of waist high snaps for once.
-- Major (and I do mean major) props to Wes Chandler. He has gotten his unit to play tremendously. The wide receivers as a whole have been the biggest surprise so far this early season. Treggs, Harper, and Powe have all been contributors way sooner than expected. I've been most impressed with the blocking of these three and the rest of the receivers to be honest. Just take a look at the blocking on Bigelow's big run below. Treggs literally held his block for four seconds. Outstanding.
-- On Bigelow ... let's not get too carried away with the Jahvid comparisons. Is Brendon explosive? Absolutely. A ton of potential? Sure. Jahvid? I don't think so. Let's wait till the end of the season before making any assumptions.
-- Chris McCain is an absolute stud. When it's all said and done and their pro careers are over, don't be surprised if McCain ends up being the best of the North Carolina crew.
-- Leadership: something Cal has been lacking lately. Could that tOSU game be a turning point? We'll see.
There must be a mandatory viewing of this video, seeing as though our opponent this week is USC.
My two favorite things from this video are:
1. Tedford's "total lack of respect" bit, which has become a running joke among my friends and me whenever anything happens that remotely resembles a lack of respect. (Example: Bouncer lets everyone in the club except for Chris)
2. Whoever is yelling, "Wooooooowwwahhah" in the background. My educated guess is that it was this guy.
Nobody ever questioned Joe Maningo's heart or balls.
Tedford was always going to be criticized for
his fourth down decision.
(AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)
Let’s agree on this first: if Cal coach Jeff Tedford had gotten that 4th-and-1
call “right,” there would be no debate and no outrage.
Getting it “right” in this case would have been Tedford
making a decision and his team successfully executing it. At the same time,
getting it “wrong” was Tedford making a decision and his team failing at
execution.
Tedford, after seeing his team tie OhioState
28-28 and his defense forcing a turnover, let the play clock run down, called
time out (we’ll talk about this later) and sent Vince D’Amato out for the
42-yard field goal attempt.
We all know what happened. Tedford—in the eyes of many—was emphatically “wrong.” As the distraught fan in the row in front of me
at Ohio Stadium expressed as the Buckeyes celebrated a 35-28 victory over Cal: “Fire Tedford! Fire
Tedford! Fire Tedford!”
I left Ohio Stadium the least upset I have ever been after a
Cal loss. Disappointed, yes, but proud of Cal’s effort and far more optimistic
about the Bears future than a week ago. When I expressed this sentiment to a
Cal fan at the airport this morning, he shook his head and said this is why the
Bears are stuck in mediocrity. He immediately brought up the 4th-and-1.
“You need to pound the ball and demoralize them there. That’s when we lost all
the momentum.”
First, as a side note, I think people often weigh terms like
“momentum” and “confidence” far too greatly. The double-lateral, Keenan
Allen-to-Zach Maynard pass two minutes into the fourth quarter clearly fired up
the team, and C.J. Anderson’s run into the end zone on the very next play
brought everyone in Blue and Gold to a complete frenzy. What happened next? Ohio State
had their most methodical drive of the day: 11 plays, 75 yards in less than
four minutes (plus a two-point conversion). Momentum stopped just like that.
But back to the decision. If I were coach, I would have gone
for it on fourth down. In the second half, Cal backs carried the ball 14 times
and gained positive yardage in 12 of the attempts, looking especially good in short yardage situations. Meanwhile, Vince D’Amato will
be lucky to hover between 50 to 60 percent on kicks over 40 yards this season. But
even though I disagree with Tedford’s decision, it was really a toss up there.
Tedford wanted the lead. He had two nines against an eight at the blackjack
table and decided not to split the cards.
Converting the fourth down and scoring a touchdown compared
to just getting a field goal would not have guaranteed victory by any means. Braxton
Miller showed he became more dangerous as the field shortened (5 TDs, 0 FGs). If the Buckeyes were
going to score again, chances are it was going to be another touchdown. Even if
Cal had a seven-point lead, an Ohio State score would have probably meant
overtime. I don’t know about you, but the vision of the Buckeyes starting at
the 25 every procession and D’Amato having five times more pressure than any of
his previous kicks is rather unappealing to me.
For me, the decision really came down to what gave Cal the
best chance to score—either field goal or touchdown. Assuming you get a first
down, you’re still risking turnovers and penalties, not to mention the potential
reward only being a 35-yard attempt rather than a 42. For me, it was still
worth the gamble, but I don’t the percentages were as clear-cut as many fans
make it seem.
Quick note about my Ohio experience: I agree with Brian’s
assessment below, and I was surprised how many people did not know the Buckeyes
were coming to Berkeley to complete the home-and-home next season when I asked
if we would be seeing them in 2013. But everyone was more than welcoming and
genuinely hoping we were had a good time in Columbus.
My last post was intended to draw attention to the rising tides in the Pac-12 conference in terms of coaching quality. The obvious point was to underline how stagnant Jeff Tedford has been as the leader of the Cal football program and explain how the game is flying past us as we stay treading water with Tedford. However, I'll unequivocally say it: Tedford had a superior game plan to Urban Meyer and it almost led the Bears to what would have been one of their top three road wins in the entire Tedford era (the other two being the 2007 win at Autzen and the 2002 win in East Lansing).
Zach Maynard found a nice rhythm against Ohio State.
Tedford's game plan was to keep things short and simple for Zach Maynard and the Cal offense. The premise (a simple one, really, but executed well) was that Cal's offense could compete with the OSU defense in 3rd-and-5 or less situations, and take short chunks to make it down the field. This worked well, along with a nice running game that frankly surprised me. The offensive line, which has been pretty bad this year, continued to not protect Maynard very well in instances where his first read wasn't available in the passing game. However, they got a nice push in the running game and created some problems for the Buckeyes. Tedford seemed to mix run and pass very well in this game, and this conservative "ball possession" offense served the Bears well.
According to ESPN.com, Cal is currently anywhere from a 16- to 17-point underdog against Ohio State in Saturday's game in Columbus. This is utterly shocking to me.
Despite the fact that I recently posted about the inevitability of the end of Cal football, I have been since 2002 (when I began my freshman year in Berkeley) and remain a true blue Cal fan. As such, I have never bet against the Bears. But a line like this seems like such tantalizingly easy money, it's hard for me to not hop in my Kia, drive as fast as possible (which is to say, not very -- I drive a freaking KIA) to the Nevada state line and bet every penny I have on the Buckeyes.
Seriously, can you envision any scenario in which Cal loses by less than three touchdowns that doesn't involve the earth beneath the Horseshoe suddenly opening up and this happening:
Hell, even if Liam Neeson did summon a mythological behemoth to devour half the Ohio State players and coaches (and the refs conferred and decided, "Yeah, we really should let this one play out"), I would still find it hard to believe the Bears managed to trim the gap to 15 points.
My point is: This is probably the best financial opportunity our generation has seen since the Google IPO.
So, flip your Cal hats backwards, pull a sweater over your "Who's Domicile?" shirt and get to Vegas/Atlantic City/legalized gambling locale before 9AM PST on Saturday.
You can thank me later.
(I'd like to sign off with a rousing "Go Bears," but if we're wise there will be a lot of money at stake here.... So, um, go ... Kraken?)
Cal Athletics has been running this promotion wherein they're offering $21 tickets to tomorrow's Southern Utah game, ostensibly to celebrate that Memorial Stadium renovations were completed in 21 months. (In reality, it's just a thinly veiled excuse to beg fans to come see a crappy team beat up on an even crappier team.)
Given the endless stream of media coverage concerning concussions, sub-concussions and their longterm impact on the brain (I read this particularly captivating/mega-depressing article on the subject recently on Grantland), is it fair to postulate the following:
Will Memorial Stadium, in its current capacity as a football venue, be "Done in 21?"
Let me rephrase the question: Using 21 years as a convenient over/under, when will Memorial Stadium cease hosting football games?
Let me rephrase again: When will Cal football no longer exist?
I want to make clear that I am targeting Berkeley specifically. I have heard the talking heads blabber about how no amount of neuroscience will ever scare away Southerners from their football -- at least, not in significant numbers. But isn't it fair to argue that, if any institution were to get rid of football due to health concerns legitimated ad nauseum by freaking science, it would be UC Berkeley?
Two decades sounds about right to me. Will the school abandon ship anytime soon after sinking $321 million into the renovation project? No, probably not, unless a player dies on the field.
(Could you imagine the fallout if this injury
hadn't ended as miraculously well as it did? I was in the stands when that happened and was prepared to never watch another down of football for the rest of my life if Jahvid had died -- and I was not alone among my fellow patrons in those terrifying moments in wondering whether that had actually happened.)
But two decades from now? I could see it happening.
I'm not sure how I'd feel about it either. Over the last couple seasons, I've noticed that the NBA has supplanted college football as my favorite sport. I like that I don't feel the same pangs of guilt when I watch LeBron drive to the hoop as I do when watching a DB crush a defenseless receiver over the middle. It was fine when we all thought the worst that could happen is he would have a bad back when he got older. But now we know the worst is SO. MUCH. WORSE! We're talking depression, loss of motor control, dementia, suicide. I'll miss football when it goes away, but I think it is for the best.
(Yes, when. This is a not an "if" question. The only way football survives is if it literally becomes flag football. And I don't imagine the NFL will continue to bring in billions of dollars in annual revenue if the players are wearing shorts with bright flags hanging off their waists.)
Someday, in the next 10 to 20 years, I'll take my kid to Memorial Stadium. We'll sit in the stands and cheer for the Golden Bears until we're hoarse. The sun will set over the San Francisco Bay, and we'll take in every minute of it.
But we will be watching a college soccer match.
Done in 21? Maybe I'm being optimistic, but I'm taking the under. The alternative just seems barbaric.
The following is a list of Pac-12 football coaches in 2002 when Jeff Tedford was hired at Cal, and below the current crop of coaches. Analyzing the two lists may shed some light on the recent performance of the Cal football program.
2002
Washington: Rick Neuheisel (final year, replaced in '03 by Keith Gilbertson)
Washington State: Mike Price (final year, replaced in '03 by Bill Doba)
Oregon: Mike Bellotti
Oregon State: Dennis Erickson (final year, replaced in '03 by Mike Riley)
Stanford: Buddy Teevans
UCLA: Bob Toledo (final year, replaced in '03 by Karl Dorrell)
USC: Pete Carroll
Arizona: John Mackovic
Arizona State: Dirk Koetter
Utah: Ron McBride (final year, replaced in '03 by Urban Meyer)
Colorado: Gary Barnett
2012
Washington: Steve Sarkisian
Washington State: Mike Leach
Oregon: Chip Kelly
Oregon State: Mike Riley
Stanford: David Shaw
UCLA: Jim Mora
USC: Lane Kiffin
Arizona: Rich Rodriguez
Arizona State: Todd Graham
Utah: Kyle Whittingham
Colorado: Jon Embree
The good ol' days were when this guy was our rivals coach.
Going through the list one-by-one, I'll rank them as I see the coaches now as an upgrade, a downgrade, or neutral.
Washington -- Upgrade. As much as it pains Cal fans given his recent comments, I think anyone would agree Sarkisian has injected more life in that program than it had when Neuheisel's scandal-ridden era was coming to an end, and Gilby was about to take over.
Wazzu -- Upgrade. Mike Price, the guy who was fired before he coached one game in Alabama, and then Bill Doba, who was a very nice man but didn't get results on the field, are not in Mike Leach's league, though it may take Leach a little time to get some players up there.
Oregon -- Slight upgrade. Bellotti got pretty good results year in and year out with the Ducks, but his teams were never quite on the level of Kelly's, who are now seemingly always 1 or 2 in the conference and in the Top 10 conversation on a yearly basis.
Oregon State -- Neutral. I say neutral because Mike Riley was about to come and he is still the coach. Dennis Erickson has coached about half of the conference at one point or another it seems.
Stanford -- Major upgrade. Buddy Teevans vs. anyone else would be a major upgrade. Except maybe Walt Harris.
UCLA -- Neutral. Toledo had his successes in the 90's at various times, but by 2002 his tenure had soured. Dorrell, as we know, was a less than capable replacement, food for thought for those who want Tedford out regardless of who replaces him.
USC -- Slight downgrade. I've never been more impressed with a college coach than I was with Pete Carroll during his time at USC. Kept his players loose, they had fun, and they dominated with a few notable exceptions. Though he has a No. 1 ranked team at present, Lane Kiffin needs to show me he can actually win something meaningful, which he hasn't done so far in his career.
Arizona -- Upgrade. John Mackovic was about to give way to Mike Stoops, both of whom an impartial observer would easily label as failures in the desert. Rich Rod's coaching style should suit the warmer climate much better than it did the Big 10.
Arizona State -- Slight upgrade. Nothing meant easy win more than a date on the schedule with Koetter's Sun Devils. Todd Graham is fairly untested, but it's hard to say he could be worse than Koetter.
Utah -- Upgrade. McBride, like Toledo, had had some success in the 90s but when he gave way to Meyer in 2003, Utah football turned a corner for the better and after two years when Meyer left, Whittingham has done a solid job of keeping Utah pretty competitive.
Colorado -- Slight upgrade. I have to go with a former Redskins tight ends coach here over a guy (Barnett) who is best known for this incident.
That's five schools who definitely have superior coaches now and another three where I think it is an upgrade, but you could make a case that I might be wrong. Still, even if only one of the three I deemed a "slight upgrade" is in fact an upgrade, that still makes over half of the schools with better coaches. There are two neutrals (UCLA and Oregon State) and the only downgrade in my opinion is of the school in USC that is nonetheless still the top team in the country.
This begs the question, has the Cal program regressed under Tedford since Riley's scramble ran out the clock against OSU in '07? Or is it that the Pac-12 has upgrade significantly in the coaching department since 2002 and Tedford has simply stayed more or less the same?
