Decision was more a toss up than people make it seem

I left Ohio Stadium the least upset I have ever been after a Cal loss. Disappointed, yes, but proud of Cal’s effort and far more optimistic about the Bears future than a week ago. When I expressed this sentiment to a Cal fan at the airport this morning, he shook his head and said this is why the Bears are stuck in mediocrity. He immediately brought up the 4th-and-1. “You need to pound the ball and demoralize them there. That’s when we lost all the momentum.”

First, as a side note, I think people often weigh terms like “momentum” and “confidence” far too greatly. The double-lateral, Keenan Allen-to-Zach Maynard pass two minutes into the fourth quarter clearly fired up the team, and C.J. Anderson’s run into the end zone on the very next play brought everyone in Blue and Gold to a complete frenzy. What happened next? Ohio State had their most methodical drive of the day: 11 plays, 75 yards in less than four minutes (plus a two-point conversion). Momentum stopped just like that.

But back to the decision. If I were coach, I would have gone for it on fourth down. In the second half, Cal backs carried the ball 14 times and gained positive yardage in 12 of the attempts, looking especially good in short yardage situations. Meanwhile, Vince D’Amato will be lucky to hover between 50 to 60 percent on kicks over 40 yards this season. But even though I disagree with Tedford’s decision, it was really a toss up there. Tedford wanted the lead. He had two nines against an eight at the blackjack table and decided not to split the cards.

Converting the fourth down and scoring a touchdown compared to just getting a field goal would not have guaranteed victory by any means. Braxton Miller showed he became more dangerous as the field shortened (5 TDs, 0 FGs). If the Buckeyes were going to score again, chances are it was going to be another touchdown. Even if Cal had a seven-point lead, an Ohio State score would have probably meant overtime. I don’t know about you, but the vision of the Buckeyes starting at the 25 every procession and D’Amato having five times more pressure than any of his previous kicks is rather unappealing to me.

For me, the decision really came down to what gave Cal the best chance to score—either field goal or touchdown. Assuming you get a first down, you’re still risking turnovers and penalties, not to mention the potential reward only being a 35-yard attempt rather than a 42. For me, it was still worth the gamble, but I don’t the percentages were as clear-cut as many fans make it seem.

Quick note about my Ohio experience: I agree with Brian’s assessment below, and I was surprised how many people did not know the Buckeyes were coming to Berkeley to complete the home-and-home next season when I asked if we would be seeing them in 2013. But everyone was more than welcoming and genuinely hoping we were had a good time in Columbus.