Program-crippling blowouts

LaMichael James and Oregon decimated Cal in 2009.

There is hardly anything more damaging to a college football program than a blowout loss. I would submit that getting waxed in college football has a bigger impact than any other sport, amateur or professional.

Comparing football to other college sports, football has fewer games, so each game carries more importance, magnifying the impact of the blowout. Recruits are often at games, and a big loss can carry an adverse effect beyond just the present season. Alumni may make decisions to buy or not to buy season tickets for future seasons based on a particularly good win or bad loss. Fans tend to tolerate narrow losses, as you can point to a number of small factors that would have swung the game the other way. But the hopelessness that pervades a fan base after a blowout loss is a damaging element in any momentum a program might have. It's similar in politics, where a narrow loss in the Iowa caucuses for Rick Santorum (he actually won when votes were recounted) wasn't nearly as damaging as a huge loss was to candidates like Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann. Santorum was able to stay in the race a lot longer because of how close he finished to Romney.

In other professional sports, like tennis, a blowout loss could be potentially very damaging, like say, if Roger Federer lost 6-1, 6-2, 6-0 to Rafael Nadal in a major final, it might permanently alter the landscape of power. Though, if Federer bounced back in a tournament a few weeks later by beating Nadal, some of the mental damage would be mitigated.

In any case, the simple stat I'd like to throw out is this: In the first seven years of Jeff Tedford's tenure as head coach, Cal lost by 20 points or more one time. Since 2009, the Bears have dropped 10 games by 20-plus points, including Saturday's 49-27 loss at Rice-Eccles Stadium to Utah.

Looking into the graduation rates

As if the beatdown issued to Cal by Stanford last Saturday wasn't enough, this week brought the publishing of the most recent graduation statistics by the NCAA. As you can see from doing a simple search, Cal places dead last in the conference at 48%, and that number takes into account transfers and students who leave under good academic standing.

Recent graduation numbers released by the NCAA don't
exactly reflect well on Jeff Tedford and the Cal football program.

Of course, the simple reaction to this from a Cal fan would be, "This is the last straw with Tedford -- he can't produce on the field and now we find out he can't produce off it either!"

It's a reaction that is understandable, and not completely off the mark. However, it's necessary to look deeper into the numbers to get a full picture of what is going on.

Getting Ready for Big Game Week

It may be October, it may be 80 degrees outside, and there may not be a bonfire this time around, but it is nonetheless Big Game Week. This rivalry is too special and too historical to let a scheduling change take anything away from it.

As recently as a decade ago, there was a chain-linked fence that needed to be erected to separate the two teams’ fans at Memorial Stadium. Recently, however, it seems as if the Big Game has lost some of its luster. It probably doesn't help that Cal and Stanford have alternated between being really good and really bad (and never at the same time) over much of the last 20 years, making for lopsided matchups on paper and less head-to-head conference significance.

During the Tedford era, I can easily point to games against USC, Oregon and Tennessee as the most meaningful and anticipated games of the year. But even so, one of the toughest losses I’ve had to stomach was in 2007 when Stanford upset the Bears to snap Cal’s five-game winning streak that many of us had taken for granted. And probably the best Cal game I have ever attended in person was the Bears 34-28 win at Stanford Stadium in 2009. There is something special about the Big Game.

Even with Cal fighting to stay relevant in 2012, and Stanford controlling their destiny for a Pac-12 Championship berth with only one conference loss, I was surprised to see the Cardinal only favored by 2.5 points. As we all know, anything can happen at the Big Game. Perhaps now that the Bears have very little to play for except pride (and an appearance at AT&T Park in December), Cal fans will once again get properly fired up in what should always be the biggest game of the year. Even on a warm October day.

The possibility of glory

I realized last night what makes sports, or sport as Mitt Romney would say, special to me -- it's not highlight reel plays, spectacular statistical lines, or even big wins. It's the feeling that something great could happen for and by your team. After the Oakland A's improbable postseason run came to an end last night, I was reminded of the stinging feeling I also had in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003, all losses in that bugaboo of a game 5 hurdle that the A's can't seem to get past. But I think I was most upset that the excitement of the last four months was over. The guarded optimism of July turned into a hope of maybe taking the second wild card, then to the excitement of catching the Rangers, then of getting past the Tigers and Verlander, taking on the Yankees in the Bronx and getting to the World Series. Just to think of the possibilities was amazing -- even if they were largely kept to myself in an effort not to jinx anything.

A step forward and two back?

There is no doubt in my mind -- Jeff Tedford's chance of remaining the Cal football coach beyond the end of this season increased dramatically after Saturday's beatdown of UCLA (aka Westwood Tech) at Memorial Stadium.

Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing is up to the individual, although it seems the consensus among this blog is that keeping Tedford any longer than we have to would be a bad thing. Heck, even our resident Tedford bobblehead keeper is off the bandwagon! The thing about any fan base, though, is that it will be very reactionary and not able to take the long view to a situation. It's hard to not feel happy for Tedford and the team after their crisp, efficient, and dominating performance, albeit over a program that has done less with more than any other in the Pac-12 (and you could argue, the nation) in the last decade and a half. UCLA hasn't won a game in Memorial Stadium since Tedford's arrival, the only team in the conference not to now that ASU beat us in Strawberry Canyon a week ago.

Breaking up is hard to do

This is really hard for me to write.

I was there, in the Memorial Stadium student section on August 31, 2002, when it all began:

C 1-10 C29 Williams,T. pass complete to Gray,David for 71 yards to the BU0, 1S DOWN CAL, TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:40. Boller lateral to Williams before pass. Jensen,Mark kick attempt good.Boller lateral to Williams before pass. Jensen,Mark kick attempt good.

I was there for the highs:

U 4-6 C21 Ryan Killeen field goal attempt from 39 MISSED - wide right, spot at USC25, clock 15:00.

...

C 4-6 U21 Fredrickson, T. field goal attempt from 38 GOOD, clock 15:00.

And I was there for the lows:

C 1-10 O12 [SHOT], Riley, Kevin rush SC for 2 yards to the OSU10 (Joey LaRocque). 

C 2-8 O10 End of game, clock 00:00.

Now, looking back, I think it all turned that day, five years ago, October 13, 2007. I didn't know it then, of course. Standing there, jaw agape, with my friends for 30 minutes in deafening silence, all I knew was No. 2 Cal had blown a chance to ascend to the pinnacle of the college football universe, after No. 1 LSU had fallen during the Bears' game against Oregon State.

Crushed as I as, in my heart I knew the missed opportunity was merely the first of many that would surely come over the next several years. After all, we had Jeff Tedford at the helm.

I was wrong.